{"id":4024,"date":"2026-06-29T12:19:08","date_gmt":"2026-06-29T10:19:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.nextmobility.be\/post\/cout-fiscal-voitures-de-societe\/"},"modified":"2026-06-29T12:24:50","modified_gmt":"2026-06-29T10:24:50","slug":"tax-cost-company-cars","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nextmobility.be\/en\/post\/tax-cost-company-cars\/","title":{"rendered":"Company cars: what the 5.2 billion study really says"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">5.2 billion euros. That is the tax revenue Belgium forgoes because of company cars by 2028, according to a study by the Federal Planning Bureau published in June 2025 (Laurent Franckx and Bruno Hoornaert, Working Paper 2025-04).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The figure is already circulating as a slogan: &#8220;company cars cost 5 billion, abolish them.&#8221; That is moving too fast. The study runs to sixty-four pages, and read in full, it says something more uncomfortable, both for those who defend the system and for those who want to tear it down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This article does two things. First, it summarises as factually as possible what the study establishes. Then it opens four questions it deliberately sets aside, which are precisely the ones the public debate tends to confuse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What the study measures, and what &#8220;tax expenditure&#8221; means<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A company car made available for private use is a benefit in kind. For the beneficiary, it is like receiving extra salary, but earmarked for a car. The researchers&#8217; question is simple to state: how much more would the State collect if that benefit were taxed at what it is actually worth to the person who enjoys it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">To answer it, they build a &#8220;benchmark&#8221;, a so-called neutral reference taxation, in which the benefit is taxed on the total cost of ownership (TCO) a private individual would bear if they bought the same car out of their own pocket. The &#8220;tax expenditure&#8221; is the gap between the revenues under the current system and those under that benchmark. An important point for the precision of the debate: this is not a subsidy paid out, a spending line you could cross off, but revenue forgone relative to a theoretical reference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The figures<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A few reference points the study sets out:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Nearly 60% of new passenger cars sold in Belgium are company cars.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The benefit in kind (BIK) is calculated by applying a CO2 percentage to 6\/7 of the list price. That percentage ranges from 4% (the minimum, for fully electric cars) to 18% (the maximum, for the highest emitters). The reference emissions value falls every year, which mechanically raises the BIK of high-emission cars.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Company cars are fully exempt from personal social security contributions. On the employer side, the solidarity contribution depends on the fuel and the CO2 emissions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The cost is nothing new: several studies had already estimated it, in a comparable order of magnitude but with a gap from single to double depending on the assumptions used (annual mileage, depreciation, scope of taxes).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Study<\/th><th>Estimated annual revenue forgone<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Harding (2014)<\/td><td>~2.0 bn (range 1.5 to 2.4)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Laine and Van Steenbergen (2017)<\/td><td>~1.9 bn (personal income tax only)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>May et al. (2019)<\/td><td>~2.3 bn<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Princen (2017)<\/td><td>~3.75 bn<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Federal Planning Bureau (2025)<\/td><td>~5.2 bn in 2028 (range 3 to 6)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">These figures are not strictly comparable, their scopes differ. But they all agree on the order of magnitude: several billion per year. The 2025 estimate rises from 4.7 billion in 2025 to just over 5.2 billion in 2028. The sensitivity analysis puts the total between 3 and 6 billion depending on the assumptions. Most of the gap comes from the private use of the cars; on top of that come non-recovered VAT (over 0.6 billion in 2028) and a slight drop in corporate tax revenue (0.1 billion).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The heart of the study: a trade-off between budget and CO2<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is the most important result, and the least reported. The current Belgian regime, with all its flaws, ties the tax advantage directly to CO2 emissions, through the calculation of the BIK and the solidarity contribution. In plain terms: the more a car emits, the more it is taxed. It is this mechanism that today pulls the company car fleet toward low carbon, and then toward electric.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The fleet composition figures show it: the share of diesel in company cars fell from 88% in 2012 to 38% in 2021, first in favour of petrol, then of plug-in hybrids and electric cars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the &#8220;neutral&#8221; benchmark removes that incentive. If you taxed the benefit at its true use value, without regard to emissions, demand would shift toward more polluting cars. The simulation is clear: by 2028, the market share of electric cars would fall from 34.2% to 33.5%, and that of petrol plug-in hybrids from 27.8% to around 25%. A counterintuitive detail: it is precisely on these two powertrains that revenue per car would rise the most under the benchmark, because they are the ones that benefit most from the tax advantage today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In other words, recovering part of those billions by taxing the benefit &#8220;like a salary&#8221; would be paid for with a fleet that electrifies more slowly. On this file, budget and climate do not point in the same direction. That is the whole discomfort of the subject.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What the study honestly acknowledges as limits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">A serious study says what it cannot say. Three limits are worth keeping in mind before turning the figure into policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">First, the model used (CASMO) calculates the composition of the fleet, not the total number of company cars, nor the distances driven, nor the share of private kilometres: these parameters are set as inputs. Second, taxing actual private use would assume you can verify it, which poses a real practical administrative problem. Third, certain behavioural effects are not simulated: if the fuel or charging card were taxed, private use would probably fall (the revenue forgone would then be overestimated); and if the system became less attractive, companies would offer fewer cars, gross wages would rise to compensate, and other revenues would appear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 5.2 billion is therefore a rigorous estimate, not a sum sitting on the table that you could simply go and collect.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The questions the study leaves open<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study answers one precise question: the tax cost. It raises others, which a mobility expert cannot ignore. Here are four.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Private use, the system&#8217;s blind spot<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The literature the study cites is unambiguous: households with a company car own more cars, make more trips, have longer commutes and use public transport less. The reason is simple: once the car is financed and the fuel card is in your pocket, driving costs almost nothing at the margin. The real lever is therefore not only the tax rate, but the incentive to use the car. And that is exactly the point a purely budgetary reform risks missing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Reflex mobility<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">When the car is &#8220;free&#8221; to use, it becomes the default choice for every trip, including the three kilometres a bike would handle better. This is where the Avoid-Shift-Improve logic regains all its meaning. Before optimising the car (Improve, that is, electrifying it), there are the trips you can avoid (Avoid) and those you can shift to bike or public transport (Shift). The debate on company car taxation is almost exclusively about the third lever. The first two, often the most effective, stay out of frame. That is precisely the territory of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextmobility.be\/en\/defi\/budget-mobilite-en-entreprise-mise-en-place-conforme-et-operationnelle\/\">mobility budget<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. The size of the cars<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study notes in passing that company cars tend to be more expensive and heavier than private cars. The BIK, calculated on list price and emissions, does not directly capture mass or footprint. Yet a large electric SUV remains low-emission on paper, while weighing more, consuming more and costing more. This is the &#8220;car obesity&#8221; trend documented by Transport &amp; Environment. We will return to it in detail, but the principle is the same as for the battery: the right car is almost always smaller than you think (see our analysis on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nextmobility.be\/en\/post\/sizing-electric-fleet-battery\/\">sizing an electric fleet<\/a>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. The great absentee: the mobility budget<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The study analyses the old world, that of the company car. It says nothing about the mechanism designed to offer an alternative: the mobility budget, set to become general for companies that offer company cars. We debate the cost of the existing system while the very tool meant to provide a way out is being put in place. Connecting the two is the real policy question. A euro taken away from the company car does not produce the same effect depending on whether it is returned in cash or redirected toward a mobility alternative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">In summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The 5.2 billion figure is real, useful and well documented. But it is a measurement, not a verdict. The same study reminds us that the current system, however costly, is one of the few that actively pushes the fleet toward low carbon, and that a purely budgetary reform would be paid for on the emissions side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">You can want to recover part of those billions. You can want to keep a fleet that is electrifying. Moving both forward together is the whole job, and that is where the mobility budget, vehicle sizing and the question of usage take their place again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I am not defending the current system. I am saying that to reform it intelligently, you have to read the whole study, not just its first line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Source: Federal Planning Bureau, Working Paper 2025-04, &#8220;Tax expenditures linked to company cars&#8221;, Laurent Franckx and Bruno Hoornaert, June 2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>5.2 billion euros. That is the tax revenue Belgium forgoes because of company cars by 2028, according to a study by the Federal Planning Bureau published in June 2025 (Laurent Franckx and Bruno Hoornaert, Working Paper 2025-04). The figure is already circulating as a slogan: &#8220;company cars cost 5 billion, abolish them.&#8221; That is moving [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4021,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-post"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Company cars: what the 5.2 billion study really says - Next Mobility<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The Federal Planning Bureau puts the tax cost of company cars at 5.2 billion by 2028. 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